MEMBER VOICE — ZIMBABWE

ZFU’s economic analysis shows that in Zimbabwe, the Middle East conflict has not simply raised fuel prices — it has amplified structural vulnerabilities that were already making agricultural production more expensive than in neighbouring countries.

The disruption to global energy markets caused by the Middle East conflict has affected agricultural sectors worldwide. In Zimbabwe, however, WFO member Zimbabwe Farmers Union (ZFU) reports that the impact goes beyond the global shock. In its April 2026 economic analysis, ZFU documents how rising fuel prices are hitting Zimbabwe’s farmers at a moment of particular vulnerability — and why the country’s fuel cost structure means the burden falls harder here than in comparable neighbouring countries.

The fuel price increases and what drives it

Prior to the conflict, diesel in Zimbabwe stood at US$1.55 per litre. Since then, prices have moved in successive steps — to US$1.77, then US$2.05, and currently US$2.11 per litre. ZFU’s analysis draws a revealing comparison: Zambia and Rwanda face identical global pricing pressures, impose similar fuel taxes, and are equally landlocked from major ports. Yet Zambia’s diesel price stands at approximately US$1.54, Rwanda’s at US$1.51. The disparity, ZFU is clear, is not solely attributable to global market dynamics — it is rooted in structural factors.

Zimbabwe’s elevated fuel prices are primarily driven by taxes and levies — including a Strategic Reserve Levy, carbon tax and VAT — alongside its landlocked position, which means fuel is transported overland from Mozambican ports and Durban, with ageing rail infrastructure favouring road freight. Market concentration limits competition, with a small number of companies dominating import and distribution. In practice, ZERA’s ceiling price mechanism sets a comfortable target for operators rather than a genuine maximum. Ethanol blending costs add a further US$0.04–0.05 per litre. The result: Zimbabwe currently ranks as the third most expensive country in Africa to operate in terms of energy costs.

The impact on Zimbabwe’s agricultural sector

ZFU’s greater concern lies in the potential for sudden price shocks across all tradable goods and services, since all goods and services involve the use of fuel at some point in the production and distribution chain. The March and April price hikes are already affecting transport operators, minibus services, long-haul truckers and agricultural freight, with post-harvest grain movement — a priority at this time of year — becoming more expensive. Consumer prices and food logistics costs are rising as a result.

For irrigated crop farmers, the situation is compounded by load shedding: many have resorted to generators, leading to a significant rise in effective energy costs. This surge is primarily borne by farmers operating in a buyer’s market, with limited capacity to pass costs on. The inflationary effects are widespread and regressive, disproportionately impacting lower-income households that allocate a substantial portion of their income to transportation and food.

Near-term outlook and policy options

ZFU notes that the near-term trajectory of fuel prices will depend significantly on the evolution of global energy markets, with a potential review at ZERA’s May assessment. However, structural costs — taxes, levies, inland logistics, and ethanol pricing — remain unchanged and continue to account for over half of the price per litre. This will not resolve with the conflict.

In the longer term, ZFU points to two priorities: the revival of the Feruka refinery and the Mutare-Harare pipeline, which have the potential to alleviate transport costs; and fuel tax reform to facilitate price reductions to regional comparable levels. Until those structural issues are addressed, global energy shocks will continue to hit Zimbabwe’s farmers harder than their neighbours. This update is part of an ongoing series in which WFO is gathering and amplifying contributions from its member organisations worldwide in response to the Middle East crisis.

About ZFU

Zimbabwe Farmers Union (ZFU) is the largest farmers’ organisation in the country, representing over one million farming households across communal, resettlement, small-scale commercial and large-scale commercial farming areas. Founded in 1992, ZFU advocates for farmers’ rights and interests, promotes agricultural modernisation, and works to improve farmer livelihoods across Zimbabwe.