An analysis of COP30 outcomes and their implications for farmers, with a look ahead to COP31 in Antalya, by Luisa Volpe, Advocacy, Policy & Partnerships Lead, and Francesco Brusaporco, Senior Officer at the World Farmers’ Organisation (WFO)*

The 30^th UN Climate Change Conference (COP30) convened in Belém at a pivotal moment for the global climate community. It marked ten years since the Paris Agreement, yet unfolded amid rising geopolitical tensions, deep divergences on ambition, and growing uncertainty over whether countries can still deliver on collective climate goals. Brazil succeeded in keeping the multilateral process alive, but the outlook for climate – and for farmers – remains far from reassuring.

The latest data underscored both the urgency of climate action and the particular vulnerability of the agricultural sector and rural communities.

While 2024 was officially recognised as the warmest year on record, multiple reports highlighted the scale of climate-induced losses, the chronic underinvestment in agrifood systems, and the growing misalignment between policy commitments and resources available on the ground. Although most updated Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) now include at least one agriculture- or food-related commitment, farmers were rarely involved in shaping those plans — creating an ‘ownership gap’ that continues to undermine implementation.

High Expectations but Mixed Results for Agriculture

The Brazilian Presidency generated high expectations among farmers, having positioned food and agriculture as one of the six axes of its Action Agenda and a priority area of investment in the Baku-to-Belém Roadmap. The latter – released just before COP – explicitly recognised the essential role of farmer organisations and cooperatives, a significant win for the World Farmers’ Organisation (WFO) and the UNFCCC Farmers’ Constituency. Agriculture was also highly visible throughout the two weeks in Belém, including through EMBRAPA’s AgriZone and initiatives such as the Resilient Agriculture Investment for Net-Zero Land Degradation (RAIZ).

Yet this visibility did not translate into equivalent recognition in the formal outcome. The Global Mutirão, COP30’s core political decision, contained no reference to farmers, agriculture or even food security. Meanwhile, the Just Transition Work Programme acknowledged the importance of involving “rural economy actors, especially smallholder farmers,” in designing pathways that contribute to “decent work, quality jobs and food production”, while the Global Goal on Adaptation preserved a dedicated cluster of indicators on climate-resilient food systems, reaffirming the link between adaptation, sustainable production and food security.

Regrettably, negotiations under the Sharm el-Sheikh Joint Work on Implementation of Climate Action on Agriculture and Food Security (SJWA) — the only agriculture-specific workstream — were abruptly suspended and postponed to June 2026. With little time remaining before its mandate expires, many Parties and observers fear the four-year programme is losing direction, with agriculture-related discussions migrating to other tracks where technical expertise is limited.

The Road to Antalya: The future of Agriculture in the UNFCCC

The next COP will take place from 9 to 20 November 2026 in Antalya, following an agreement between Türkiye and Australia granting Australia leadership of the negotiations. Anticipating the conclusion of the SJWA, the WFO has already initiated discussions within and across Constituencies and will engage agriculture negotiators and other relevant actors to explore options for strengthening agriculture’s representation beyond 2026, ranging from improved cross-track coordination to a more technical workstream.

©Rafa Neddermeyer/COP30

Beyond negotiations, WFO will monitor processes launched in Belém, including the two new Presidency-led roadmaps on phasing out fossil fuels and halting and reversing deforestation; the initiatives to accelerate NDCs and NAPs implementation, as agreed under the Mutirão; and the new series of dialogues on climate and trade, a topic WFO had already elevated at the WTO Public Forum.

Importantly, COP30 demonstrated the value of a strong, united Farmers’ Constituency. Collaboration within the Farmers’ Constituency helped amplify shared concerns and advance key issues such as adaptation, finance and just transition. Equally important was the growing alignment with other key Constituencies, notably Children and Youth (YOUNGO), whose closing statement also highlighted the absence of farmers in the final COP decision, reinforcing WFO’s long-standing emphasis on generational renewal and elevating young farmers’ voices. The adoption of the new Gender Action Plan, with references to “women smallholder farmers” and “rural women,” provides timely momentum ahead of 2026, the International Year of the Woman Farmer.

Conclusion: Fully Integrating Farmers’ Leadership into Climate Action

Across discussions in Belém, COP30 made clear the need for decisions grounded in the realities of those who manage land, feed people, and sustain rural economies. This further underscores the importance of the WFO’s dual role: empowering members to influence national processes, and bringing their diverse experiences together to construct science-based, farmer-driven, solution-oriented positions in the global arena.

COP30 may have prevented the system from coming apart, yet real progress for the agricultural sector and rural communities will depend on resolving the ambiguity around farmers’ role and fully integrating their leadership into the process.

*The World Farmers’ Organisation (WFO) is the focal point for the UNFCCC Farmers’ Constituency.

Cover photo: Rafa Neddermeyer/COP30